FC Porto B 1–0 Portimonense: Result & Stats

FC Porto B

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Portimonense

L. Vonic 47'

11/23/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 10Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

FC Porto B45%

×Draw26%

Portimonense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Porto BExpected goals in this matchPortimonense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.10

FC Porto B

1.45

Portimonense

1.10

FC Porto B creates 32% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 40 away

1.42

creates per match

0.97

1.24

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

FC Porto B

1.42

Portimonense

0.97

allows per match

FC Porto B

1.24

Portimonense

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Porto B+0.00on par

Portimonense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto B ↓

Portimonense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC Porto B or draw

71%

FC Porto B or Portimonense

74%

Draw or Portimonense

55%

Winning margin

FC Porto B wins by 2+

22%

Portimonense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Porto B 1+ goals

77%

FC Porto B 2+ goals

42%

FC Porto B 3+ goals

18%

Portimonense 1+ goals

67%

Portimonense 2+ goals

30%

Portimonense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FC Porto B (draw refunded)

61%

Portimonense (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto B at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 125 matches

Portimonense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.48 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto B attack 1.42 + Portimonense defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.45

Portimonense attack 0.97 + FC Porto B defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Porto B scores more

45%

level

26%

Portimonense scores more

29%

FC Porto B at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Porto B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

79

L. Vonic

FC Porto B · F

8.2

Match Events

40'

Ángel Alarcón

43'

Douglas Grolli

47'

L. Vonic↳ Pedro Lima

55'

Welinton Junior← F. Canario

62'

J. Teixeira← T. Perez

62'

Ze Gabriel← M. Junior

69'

T. Melnichenko← Y. Karamoh

69'

B. Caicedo← L. Vonic

85'

M. Dju← S. Lobato

86'

G. Sousa← A. Alarcon

86'

T. Silva← Kaue Rodrigues

90'

Pedro Lima

90+2'

Mindinho

90+2'

Samy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCPortimonense

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots11

8Corners3

23Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots11

5On Target3

5Off Target7

1Blocked1

8Inside Box5

3Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

394Total Passes464

314Accurate Passes398

80%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0