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FC Politehnica Timisoara vs Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele — Liga II 2018

FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
CANC
13:00
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
3/14/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 25Stadionul Ştiinţa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara35%
×Draw27%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.23
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 21 away

creates per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.07
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.52

allows per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.04
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.38

finishing

FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Politehnica Timisoara ↓

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Politehnica Timisoara or draw
62%
FC Politehnica Timisoara or Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
73%
Draw or Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
65%

Winning margin

FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
15%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
71%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
35%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
13%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 1+ goals
72%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 2+ goals
37%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
48%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Politehnica Timisoara at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 1.07 + Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele attack 1.52 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
35%
level
27%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele scores more
38%

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Politehnica Timisoara face Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele (Liga II)

Liga II returns with FC Politehnica Timisoara hosting Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Politehnica Timisoara host Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele at Stadionul Ştiinţa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.