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FC Politehnica Timisoara vs Sportul Snagov — Liga II 2018

FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
11/12/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 16Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara45%
×Draw27%
Sportul Snagov28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.42
Sportul Snagov
1.07

FC Politehnica Timisoara creates 33% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 30 away

creates per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.07
Sportul Snagov
1.10

allows per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.04
Sportul Snagov
1.77

finishing

FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par
Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Politehnica Timisoara ↓

Sportul Snagov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Politehnica Timisoara or draw
72%
FC Politehnica Timisoara or Sportul Snagov
73%
Draw or Sportul Snagov
55%

Winning margin

FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
22%
Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
76%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
41%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
17%
Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
66%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
29%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
61%
Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Politehnica Timisoara at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 1.07 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
45%
level
27%
Sportul Snagov scores more
28%

FC Politehnica Timisoara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Politehnica Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: FC Politehnica Timisoara 1–2 Sportul Snagov

Sportul Snagov beat FC Politehnica Timisoara 2-1 in Liga II on November 12, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu (Timişoara).