Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Politehnica Timisoara vs Dacia Unirea Braila — Liga II 2018

FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
4/14/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 30Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara75%
×Draw15%
Dacia Unirea Braila10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.64
Dacia Unirea Braila
0.86

FC Politehnica Timisoara creates 207% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 19 away

creates per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.07
Dacia Unirea Braila
0.68

allows per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.04
Dacia Unirea Braila
4.21

finishing

FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par
Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Politehnica Timisoara ↓

Dacia Unirea Braila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

FC Politehnica Timisoara or draw
90%
FC Politehnica Timisoara or Dacia Unirea Braila
85%
Draw or Dacia Unirea Braila
25%

Winning margin

FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
53%
Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
93%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
74%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
48%
Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
58%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
21%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
88%
Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Politehnica Timisoara at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

Dacia Unirea Braila away — creates 0.68, concedes 4.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 1.07 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 4.21 → ÷2 → 2.64

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.68 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
75%
level
15%
Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
10%

FC Politehnica Timisoara at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "FC Politehnica Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: FC Politehnica Timisoara 4–0 Dacia Unirea Braila

FC Politehnica Timisoara beat Dacia Unirea Braila 4-0 in Liga II on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu (Timişoara).