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FC Politehnica Timisoara vs Aerostar Bacau — Liga II 2018

FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
3/9/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 24Stadionul Ştiinţa (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara53%
×Draw25%
Aerostar Bacau23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.65
Aerostar Bacau
1.00

FC Politehnica Timisoara creates 65% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 31 away

creates per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.07
Aerostar Bacau
0.97

allows per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.04
Aerostar Bacau
2.23

finishing

FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par
Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Politehnica Timisoara ↓

Aerostar Bacau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Politehnica Timisoara or draw
77%
FC Politehnica Timisoara or Aerostar Bacau
75%
Draw or Aerostar Bacau
47%

Winning margin

FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
28%
Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
81%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
49%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
23%
Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
63%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
26%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
70%
Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Politehnica Timisoara at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 1.07 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.65

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
53%
level
25%
Aerostar Bacau scores more
23%

FC Politehnica Timisoara at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Politehnica Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: FC Politehnica Timisoara 1–2 Aerostar Bacau

Aerostar Bacau beat FC Politehnica Timisoara 2-1 in Liga II on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Ştiinţa (Timişoara).