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FC OSS vs Telstar — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC OSS
FC OSS
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Telstar
Telstar
R. Dekker 88'
G. Plet 10' (OG)
C. Giousis 26'
1/6/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 19Frans Heesen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

FC OSS41%
×Draw25%
Telstar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC OSS
1.52
Telstar
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 149 home / 129 away

creates per match

FC OSS
1.36
Telstar
1.18

allows per match

FC OSS
1.60
Telstar
1.69

finishing

FC OSS+0.00on par
Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC OSS ↓

Telstar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC OSS or draw
65%
FC OSS or Telstar
75%
Draw or Telstar
59%

Winning margin

FC OSS wins by 2+
20%
Telstar wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC OSS 1+ goals
78%
FC OSS 2+ goals
45%
FC OSS 3+ goals
20%
Telstar 1+ goals
75%
Telstar 2+ goals
40%
Telstar 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC OSS (draw refunded)
54%
Telstar (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC OSS at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.60 · 149 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC OSS attack 1.36 + Telstar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Telstar attack 1.18 + FC OSS defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC OSS scores more
41%
level
25%
Telstar scores more
35%

FC OSS at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC OSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
R. DekkerFC OSSFC OSS · M
7.7

Match Events

10'
G. PletOwn goal
26'
C. Giousis↳ G. Plet
42'
Glynor Plet
62'
D. Ladan← T. Beekman
62'
K. Leidsman← A. Allemeersch
63'
J. Mukeh← D. van der Sluys
64'
R. Smit← G. Plet
64'
J. Turfkruier← J. Mulder
76'
Rick Dekker
77'
Ozgur Aktas
78'
Ömer Gündüz
80'
C. Seedorf← D. Blackson
88'
R. Dekker
90+5'
Thomas Oude Kotte
90+3'
B. Leeflang← R. Dekker
90'
M. Hilderink← R. Margaret
90'
J. Soares← A. Bensabouh

Possession

35%FC

Shots

5FC

Pass accuracy

45%FC

Statistics

FCTelstar
Overview
35%Possession65%
5Total Shots14
3Corners3
21Fouls14
Shots
5Total Shots14
4On Target4
1Off Target7
0Blocked3
4Inside Box8
1Outside Box6
Passing
35%Possession65%
294Total Passes529
194Accurate Passes421
66%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
21Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides1

FC OSS 2 – 1 Telstar

FC OSS beat Telstar 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on January 6, 2023.

Goals: G. Plet (10' o.g.), C. Giousis (26'), R. Dekker (88').

Telstar controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at Frans Heesen Stadion in Oss.