FC OSS 1–2 NAC Breda: Result & Stats

FC OSS

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

NAC Breda

1/20/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 21Frans Heesen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

FC OSS34%

×Draw24%

NAC Breda42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC OSSExpected goals in this matchNAC Breda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.61

FC OSS

1.42

NAC Breda

1.61

NAC Breda creates 13% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 90 away

1.31

creates per match

1.62

1.60

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

FC OSS

1.31

NAC Breda

1.62

allows per match

FC OSS

1.60

NAC Breda

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC OSS+0.00on par

NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC OSS ↓

NAC Breda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC OSS or draw

58%

FC OSS or NAC Breda

76%

Draw or NAC Breda

66%

Winning margin

FC OSS wins by 2+

15%

NAC Breda wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

FC OSS 1+ goals

76%

FC OSS 2+ goals

41%

FC OSS 3+ goals

17%

NAC Breda 1+ goals

80%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

48%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FC OSS (draw refunded)

45%

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC OSS at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.60 · 147 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC OSS attack 1.31 + NAC Breda defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

NAC Breda attack 1.62 + FC OSS defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC OSS scores more

34%

level

24%

NAC Breda scores more

42%

NAC Breda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff