FC OSS 1–0 Den Bosch: Result & Stats

FC OSS

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Den Bosch

11/8/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 14Frans Heesen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

FC OSS44%

×Draw24%

Den Bosch32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC OSSExpected goals in this matchDen Bosch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.40

FC OSS

1.66

Den Bosch

1.40

FC OSS creates 19% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 148 away

1.31

creates per match

1.19

1.60

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

FC OSS

1.31

Den Bosch

1.19

allows per match

FC OSS

1.60

Den Bosch

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC OSS+0.00on par

Den Bosch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC OSS ↓

Den Bosch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC OSS or draw

68%

FC OSS or Den Bosch

76%

Draw or Den Bosch

56%

Winning margin

FC OSS wins by 2+

23%

Den Bosch wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC OSS 1+ goals

81%

FC OSS 2+ goals

49%

FC OSS 3+ goals

23%

Den Bosch 1+ goals

75%

Den Bosch 2+ goals

41%

Den Bosch 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC OSS (draw refunded)

57%

Den Bosch (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC OSS at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.60 · 147 matches

Den Bosch away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.01 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC OSS attack 1.31 + Den Bosch defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.66

Den Bosch attack 1.19 + FC OSS defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC OSS scores more

44%

level

24%

Den Bosch scores more

32%

FC OSS at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC OSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff