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FC OSS vs De Graafschap — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC OSS
FC OSS
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
De Graafschap
De Graafschap
3/16/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 30Frans Heesen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

FC OSS33%
×Draw24%
De Graafschap43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC OSS
1.39
De Graafschap
1.64

De Graafschap creates 18% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 131 away

creates per match

FC OSS
1.31
De Graafschap
1.68

allows per match

FC OSS
1.60
De Graafschap
1.47

finishing

FC OSS+0.00on par
De Graafschap+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC OSS ↓

De Graafschap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC OSS or draw
57%
FC OSS or De Graafschap
76%
Draw or De Graafschap
67%

Winning margin

FC OSS wins by 2+
15%
De Graafschap wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

FC OSS 1+ goals
75%
FC OSS 2+ goals
40%
FC OSS 3+ goals
16%
De Graafschap 1+ goals
81%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
49%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC OSS (draw refunded)
43%
De Graafschap (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC OSS at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.60 · 147 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC OSS attack 1.31 + De Graafschap defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

De Graafschap attack 1.68 + FC OSS defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC OSS scores more
33%
level
24%
De Graafschap scores more
43%

De Graafschap at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC OSS vs De Graafschap

De Graafschap beat FC OSS 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Frans Heesen Stadion in Oss.