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FC OSS vs Cambuur — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC OSS
FC OSS
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cambuur
Cambuur
2/27/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 29Frans Heesen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

FC OSS29%
×Draw23%
Cambuur48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC OSS
1.31
Cambuur
1.75

Cambuur creates 34% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 110 away

creates per match

FC OSS
1.31
Cambuur
1.89

allows per match

FC OSS
1.60
Cambuur
1.30

finishing

FC OSS+0.00on par
Cambuur+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC OSS ↓

Cambuur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC OSS or draw
52%
FC OSS or Cambuur
77%
Draw or Cambuur
71%

Winning margin

FC OSS wins by 2+
12%
Cambuur wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

FC OSS 1+ goals
73%
FC OSS 2+ goals
38%
FC OSS 3+ goals
14%
Cambuur 1+ goals
83%
Cambuur 2+ goals
52%
Cambuur 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

FC OSS (draw refunded)
38%
Cambuur (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC OSS at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.60 · 147 matches

Cambuur away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.30 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC OSS attack 1.31 + Cambuur defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cambuur attack 1.89 + FC OSS defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC OSS scores more
29%
level
23%
Cambuur scores more
48%

Cambuur at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cambuur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: FC OSS 1–2 Cambuur

Cambuur beat FC OSS 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on February 27, 2026.

The match was played at Frans Heesen Stadion in Oss.