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FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC OSS
FC OSS
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
2/2/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 24Frans Heesen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

FC OSS29%
×Draw24%
ADO Den Haag47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC OSS
1.29
ADO Den Haag
1.69

ADO Den Haag creates 31% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 95 away

creates per match

FC OSS
1.31
ADO Den Haag
1.77

allows per match

FC OSS
1.60
ADO Den Haag
1.28

finishing

FC OSS+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC OSS ↓

ADO Den Haag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC OSS or draw
53%
FC OSS or ADO Den Haag
76%
Draw or ADO Den Haag
71%

Winning margin

FC OSS wins by 2+
12%
ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

FC OSS 1+ goals
72%
FC OSS 2+ goals
37%
FC OSS 3+ goals
14%
ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
82%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
50%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

FC OSS (draw refunded)
39%
ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC OSS at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.60 · 147 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC OSS attack 1.31 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

ADO Den Haag attack 1.77 + FC OSS defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC OSS scores more
29%
level
24%
ADO Den Haag scores more
47%

ADO Den Haag at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: FC OSS 1–3 ADO Den Haag

ADO Den Haag beat FC OSS 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on February 2, 2024.

The match was played at Frans Heesen Stadion in Oss.