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FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
CANC
08:00
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
2/20/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Orenburg58%
×Draw23%
Rodina Moskva19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Orenburg
1.77
Rodina Moskva
0.90

FC Orenburg creates 97% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

FC Orenburg
1.80
Rodina Moskva
1.00

allows per match

FC Orenburg
0.80
Rodina Moskva
1.75

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw
81%
FC Orenburg or Rodina Moskva
77%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
42%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+
33%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals
83%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
53%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
26%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
59%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
23%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
75%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.80 + Rodina Moskva defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Rodina Moskva attack 1.00 + FC Orenburg defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Orenburg scores more
58%
level
23%
Rodina Moskva scores more
19%

FC Orenburg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva — Match Preview

FC Orenburg face Rodina Moskva on February 20, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.