Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Orenburg vs Pyunik Yerevan — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
CANC
00:00
Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
1/22/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Orenburg54%
×Draw24%
Pyunik Yerevan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Orenburg
1.68
Pyunik Yerevan
0.96

FC Orenburg creates 75% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

creates per match

FC Orenburg
1.80
Pyunik Yerevan
1.11

allows per match

FC Orenburg
0.80
Pyunik Yerevan
1.56

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par
Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw
78%
FC Orenburg or Pyunik Yerevan
76%
Draw or Pyunik Yerevan
46%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+
30%
Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals
81%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
50%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
24%
Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
62%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
25%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
72%
Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.80 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.11 + FC Orenburg defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Orenburg scores more
54%
level
24%
Pyunik Yerevan scores more
22%

FC Orenburg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Orenburg host Pyunik Yerevan

January 22, 2024: FC Orenburg take on Pyunik Yerevan in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Orenburg host Pyunik Yerevan at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.