FC Orenburg vs Nizhny Novgorod

FC Orenburg

CANC

14:00

Nizhny Novgorod

2/13/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FC Orenburg52%

×Draw23%

Nizhny Novgorod25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC OrenburgExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.21

FC Orenburg

1.84

Nizhny Novgorod

1.21

FC Orenburg creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

1.80

creates per match

1.63

0.80

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

FC Orenburg

1.80

Nizhny Novgorod

1.63

allows per match

FC Orenburg

0.80

Nizhny Novgorod

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw

75%

FC Orenburg or Nizhny Novgorod

77%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

48%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+

29%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals

84%

FC Orenburg 2+ goals

55%

FC Orenburg 3+ goals

28%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

70%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

34%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)

67%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.80 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.84

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.63 + FC Orenburg defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Orenburg scores more

52%

level

23%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

25%

FC Orenburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff