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FC Orenburg vs Lokomotiv — Cup 2019

FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
8/13/2024CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 2Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Orenburg30%
×Draw21%
Lokomotiv48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Orenburg
1.59
Lokomotiv
2.04

Lokomotiv creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

creates per match

FC Orenburg
1.71
Lokomotiv
1.95

allows per match

FC Orenburg
2.12
Lokomotiv
1.47

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw
52%
FC Orenburg or Lokomotiv
79%
Draw or Lokomotiv
70%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+
14%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals
80%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
47%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
21%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
87%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
60%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
39%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.71 + Lokomotiv defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Lokomotiv attack 1.95 + FC Orenburg defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Orenburg scores more
30%
level
21%
Lokomotiv scores more
48%

Lokomotiv at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: FC Orenburg 2–3 Lokomotiv

Lokomotiv beat FC Orenburg 3-2 in Cup on August 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.