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FC Orenburg vs Krylia Sovetov — Premier League 2018

FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
Preview
16:00
Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
3/13/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Gazovik Stadium
Big match
49%
FC Orenburg
model favours
49%25%26%

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

FC Orenburg49%
×Draw25%
Krylia Sovetov26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Orenburg
1.60
Krylia Sovetov
1.11

FC Orenburg creates 44% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 105 away

creates per match

FC Orenburg
1.39
Krylia Sovetov
1.02

allows per match

FC Orenburg
1.20
Krylia Sovetov
1.81

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par
Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Krylia Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw
74%
FC Orenburg or Krylia Sovetov
75%
Draw or Krylia Sovetov
51%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+
25%
Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals
80%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
47%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
22%
Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
67%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
30%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
65%
Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.81 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.39 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.60

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 + FC Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Orenburg scores more
49%
level
25%
Krylia Sovetov scores more
26%

FC Orenburg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Orenburg fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.9 expected)
  • Krylia Sovetov fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
FC Orenburg
Attack-heavy
Krylia Sovetov
Balanced
47%Possession48%
77%Pass accuracy78%
14.1ShotsBiggest gap11.1
1.86xG1.68
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC OrenburgKrylia Sovetov

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
FC Orenburg
4
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 70%
1–00–21–10–22–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Orenburg
WLWLL
Sovetov
LLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Orenburg face Krylia Sovetov (Premier League)

Premier League returns with FC Orenburg hosting Krylia Sovetov. Match starts March 13, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Orenburg host Krylia Sovetov at Gazovik Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.