FC Orenburg 2–2 Krylia Sovetov: Result & Stats

FC Orenburg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Krylia Sovetov

J. Marín 90+2', 73' (pen)

K. Pechenin 31'

I. Sergeev 11'

10/20/2024

Premier League · Round 12Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

FC Orenburg49%

×Draw25%

Krylia Sovetov26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC OrenburgExpected goals in this matchKrylia Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.11

FC Orenburg

1.60

Krylia Sovetov

1.11

FC Orenburg creates 44% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 105 away

1.39

creates per match

1.02

1.20

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

FC Orenburg

1.39

Krylia Sovetov

1.02

allows per match

FC Orenburg

1.20

Krylia Sovetov

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Krylia Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw

74%

FC Orenburg or Krylia Sovetov

75%

Draw or Krylia Sovetov

51%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+

25%

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals

80%

FC Orenburg 2+ goals

47%

FC Orenburg 3+ goals

22%

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

67%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

30%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)

65%

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.81 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.39 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.60

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 + FC Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Orenburg scores more

49%

level

25%

Krylia Sovetov scores more

26%

FC Orenburg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

80

J. Marín

FC Orenburg · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

I. Sergeev↳ I. Oleynikov

31'

K. Pechenin↳ Fernando Costanza

34'

Roman Ezhov

46'

I. Bašić← J. Thompson

46'

B. Mansilla← A. Kovalenko

46'

M. Ghorbani← S. Oganesyan

56'

Matías Pérez

65'

J. Cuero← Y. Mikhaylov

67'

Fernando CostanzaCard upgrade

68'

Fernando Costanza

71'

Jimmy MarínPenalty confirmed

72'

Nikolay Rasskazov

73'

J. MarínPenalty

77'

I. Gaponov← I. Oleynikov

77'

V. Méndez← B. Garré

89'

E. Gürlük← S. Saharkhizan

90+7'

Justin Cuero

90+5'

D. Ivanisenia← R. Ezhov

90+5'

V. Shitov← I. Sergeev

90+2'

J. Marín

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCKrylia

Overview

59%Possession41%

19Total Shots7

5Corners1

9Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots7

4On Target2

9Off Target5

6Blocked0

12Inside Box6

7Outside Box1

Passing

59%Possession41%

470Total Passes344

392Accurate Passes252

83%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2