FC Orenburg 1–1 Khimki: Result & Stats

FC Orenburg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Khimki

K. Karataş 52'

A. Rudenko 79'

5/10/2025

Premier League · Round 28Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

FC Orenburg54%

×Draw23%

Khimki23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC OrenburgExpected goals in this matchKhimki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.06

FC Orenburg

1.77

Khimki

1.06

FC Orenburg creates 67% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 61 away

1.39

creates per match

0.93

1.20

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

FC Orenburg

1.39

Khimki

0.93

allows per match

FC Orenburg

1.20

Khimki

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par

Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Khimki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw

77%

FC Orenburg or Khimki

77%

Draw or Khimki

46%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+

30%

Khimki wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals

83%

FC Orenburg 2+ goals

53%

FC Orenburg 3+ goals

26%

Khimki 1+ goals

65%

Khimki 2+ goals

29%

Khimki 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)

70%

Khimki (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

Khimki away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.15 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.39 + Khimki defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.77

Khimki attack 0.93 + FC Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Orenburg scores more

54%

level

23%

Khimki scores more

23%

FC Orenburg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

87

N. Kokarev

Khimki · G

8.2

Match Events

7'

Maksim Saveljev

15'

Brian Mansilla

47'

Robert Mejía

51'

K. Karataş← A. Malykh

52'

K. Karataş↳ D. Rybchinskiy

62'

Y. Mikhaylov← A. Kasimov

66'

Zelimkhan Bakaev

67'

A. Rudenko← A. Zabolotny

75'

B. Magomedov← Álex Corredera

75'

Orinho← I. Berkovskiy

79'

A. Rudenko

81'

A. Revazov← E. Gürlük

81'

S. Oganesyan← B. Mansilla

90+2'

Atsamaz Revazov

90+1'

Atsamaz RevazovRed card cancelled

90+5'

B. Amian← Z. Bakaev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCKhimki

Overview

56%Possession44%

22Total Shots13

7Corners9

12Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots13

9On Target5

8Off Target2

5Blocked6

11Inside Box12

11Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

396Total Passes297

326Accurate Passes209

82%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides5