Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Orenburg vs Kairat Almaty — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty
2/13/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC Orenburg54%
×Draw25%
Kairat Almaty21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Orenburg
1.60
Kairat Almaty
0.90

FC Orenburg creates 78% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC Orenburg
1.80
Kairat Almaty
1.00

allows per match

FC Orenburg
0.80
Kairat Almaty
1.40

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par
Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Kairat Almaty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw
79%
FC Orenburg or Kairat Almaty
75%
Draw or Kairat Almaty
46%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+
29%
Kairat Almaty wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals
80%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
47%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
22%
Kairat Almaty 1+ goals
59%
Kairat Almaty 2+ goals
23%
Kairat Almaty 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
72%
Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Kairat Almaty away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.80 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kairat Almaty attack 1.00 + FC Orenburg defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Orenburg scores more
54%
level
25%
Kairat Almaty scores more
21%

FC Orenburg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Orenburg vs Kairat Almaty

Kairat Almaty beat FC Orenburg 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 13, 2026.