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FC Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow — Premier League 2018

FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
Preview
16:00
CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
10/31/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Gazovik Stadium
Big match
37%
CSKA Moscow
model favours
36%27%37%

FC Orenburg win just 16% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

FC Orenburg36%
×Draw27%
CSKA Moscow37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Orenburg
1.23
CSKA Moscow
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 120 away

creates per match

FC Orenburg
1.39
CSKA Moscow
1.34

allows per match

FC Orenburg
1.20
CSKA Moscow
1.06

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par
CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

CSKA Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw
63%
FC Orenburg or CSKA Moscow
73%
Draw or CSKA Moscow
64%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+
15%
CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals
71%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
35%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
13%
CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
72%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
36%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
49%
CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.39 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

CSKA Moscow attack 1.34 + FC Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Orenburg scores more
36%
level
27%
CSKA Moscow scores more
37%

CSKA Moscow at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Orenburg fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
FC Orenburg
Attack-heavy
CSKA Moscow
Balanced
48%Possession53%
77%Pass accuracy82%
14.2Shots14.1
1.86xGBiggest gap1.31
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC OrenburgCSKA Moscow

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
FC Orenburg
3
Draws
6
CSKA Moscow
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 50%
2–00–20–00–21–5

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Orenburg
WLWLL
Moscow
LLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Orenburg host CSKA Moscow

October 31, 2026: FC Orenburg take on CSKA Moscow in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Orenburg host CSKA Moscow at Gazovik Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.