FC Orenburg vs Borac Banja Luka

FC Orenburg

CANC

14:00

Borac Banja Luka

1/24/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC Orenburg38%

×Draw23%

Borac Banja Luka38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC OrenburgExpected goals in this matchBorac Banja Luka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

FC Orenburg

1.60

Borac Banja Luka

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

1.80

creates per match

2.40

0.80

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

FC Orenburg

1.80

Borac Banja Luka

2.40

allows per match

FC Orenburg

0.80

Borac Banja Luka

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par

Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Borac Banja Luka →

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw

62%

FC Orenburg or Borac Banja Luka

77%

Draw or Borac Banja Luka

62%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+

19%

Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals

80%

FC Orenburg 2+ goals

47%

FC Orenburg 3+ goals

22%

Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals

80%

Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals

47%

Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)

50%

Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Borac Banja Luka away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.80 + Borac Banja Luka defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Borac Banja Luka attack 2.40 + FC Orenburg defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Orenburg scores more

38%

level

23%

Borac Banja Luka scores more

38%

FC Orenburg at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff