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FC Orenburg vs Akron — Premier League 2018

FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Akron
Akron
8/10/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

FC Orenburg44%
×Draw25%
Akron30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Orenburg
1.52
Akron
1.21

FC Orenburg creates 26% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 32 away

creates per match

FC Orenburg
1.39
Akron
1.22

allows per match

FC Orenburg
1.20
Akron
1.66

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par
Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Akron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw
70%
FC Orenburg or Akron
75%
Draw or Akron
56%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+
22%
Akron wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals
78%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
45%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
20%
Akron 1+ goals
70%
Akron 2+ goals
34%
Akron 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
59%
Akron (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

Akron away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.39 + Akron defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Akron attack 1.22 + FC Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Orenburg scores more
44%
level
25%
Akron scores more
30%

FC Orenburg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Orenburg 2–2 Akron

FC Orenburg and Akron drew 2-2 in Premier League on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.