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FC Nurnberg vs VfL Osnabruck — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Nurnberg
FC Nurnberg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck
3/14/20212. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 25Max-Morlock-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FC Nurnberg45%
×Draw25%
VfL Osnabruck30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nurnberg
1.55
VfL Osnabruck
1.22

FC Nurnberg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 52 away

creates per match

FC Nurnberg
1.35
VfL Osnabruck
1.06

allows per match

FC Nurnberg
1.38
VfL Osnabruck
1.75

finishing

FC Nurnberg+0.00on par
VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nurnberg ↓

VfL Osnabruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Nurnberg or draw
70%
FC Nurnberg or VfL Osnabruck
75%
Draw or VfL Osnabruck
55%

Winning margin

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+
23%
VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals
79%
FC Nurnberg 2+ goals
46%
FC Nurnberg 3+ goals
20%
VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals
70%
VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals
34%
VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)
60%
VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nurnberg at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 121 matches

VfL Osnabruck away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nurnberg attack 1.35 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.55

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.06 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Nurnberg scores more
45%
level
25%
VfL Osnabruck scores more
30%

FC Nurnberg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Nurnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: FC Nurnberg 1–1 VfL Osnabruck

FC Nurnberg and VfL Osnabruck drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Max-Morlock-Stadion in Nürnberg.