FC Nurnberg 0–2 SC Paderborn 07: Result & Stats

FC Nurnberg

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SC Paderborn 07

4/19/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 30Max-Morlock-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

FC Nurnberg35%

×Draw25%

SC Paderborn 0739%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NurnbergExpected goals in this matchSC Paderborn 07

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.43

FC Nurnberg

1.35

SC Paderborn 07

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 120 away

1.35

creates per match

1.48

1.38

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

FC Nurnberg

1.35

SC Paderborn 07

1.48

allows per match

FC Nurnberg

1.38

SC Paderborn 07

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nurnberg ↓

SC Paderborn 07 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Nurnberg or draw

61%

FC Nurnberg or SC Paderborn 07

75%

Draw or SC Paderborn 07

65%

Winning margin

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+

16%

SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals

74%

FC Nurnberg 2+ goals

39%

FC Nurnberg 3+ goals

15%

SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals

76%

SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals

42%

SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)

48%

SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nurnberg at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 121 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.35 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nurnberg attack 1.35 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.48 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Nurnberg scores more

35%

level

25%

SC Paderborn 07 scores more

39%

SC Paderborn 07 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SC Paderborn 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff