Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Nurnberg vs Fortuna Dusseldorf — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Nurnberg
FC Nurnberg
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
12/2/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 15Max-Morlock-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

FC Nurnberg37%
×Draw26%
Fortuna Dusseldorf37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nurnberg
1.37
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 102 away

creates per match

FC Nurnberg
1.35
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.38

allows per match

FC Nurnberg
1.38
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.39

finishing

FC Nurnberg+0.00on par
Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nurnberg ↓

Fortuna Dusseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Nurnberg or draw
63%
FC Nurnberg or Fortuna Dusseldorf
74%
Draw or Fortuna Dusseldorf
63%

Winning margin

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+
17%
Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals
75%
FC Nurnberg 2+ goals
40%
FC Nurnberg 3+ goals
16%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
75%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
40%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)
50%
Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nurnberg at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 121 matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nurnberg attack 1.35 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.37

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.38 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Nurnberg scores more
37%
level
26%
Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
37%

FC Nurnberg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Nurnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Nurnberg vs Fortuna Dusseldorf

Fortuna Dusseldorf beat FC Nurnberg 5-0 in 2. Bundesliga on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Max-Morlock-Stadion in Nürnberg.