FC Nurnberg 1–2 FC Schalke 04: Result & Stats

FC Nurnberg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Schalke 04

11/4/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 12Max-Morlock-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

FC Nurnberg38%

×Draw25%

FC Schalke 0437%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NurnbergExpected goals in this matchFC Schalke 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.40

FC Nurnberg

1.41

FC Schalke 04

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 68 away

1.35

creates per match

1.41

1.38

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

FC Nurnberg

1.35

FC Schalke 04

1.41

allows per match

FC Nurnberg

1.38

FC Schalke 04

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nurnberg ↓

FC Schalke 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Nurnberg or draw

63%

FC Nurnberg or FC Schalke 04

75%

Draw or FC Schalke 04

62%

Winning margin

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+

17%

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals

76%

FC Nurnberg 2+ goals

41%

FC Nurnberg 3+ goals

17%

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals

75%

FC Schalke 04 2+ goals

41%

FC Schalke 04 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)

50%

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nurnberg at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 121 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nurnberg attack 1.35 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.41 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Nurnberg scores more

38%

level

25%

FC Schalke 04 scores more

37%

FC Nurnberg at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Nurnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff