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FC Nurnberg vs Beerschot VA — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Nurnberg
FC Nurnberg
CANC
00:00
Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
7/17/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Nurnberg29%
×Draw20%
Beerschot VA51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nurnberg
1.69
Beerschot VA
2.30

Beerschot VA creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

FC Nurnberg
2.17
Beerschot VA
3.11

allows per match

FC Nurnberg
1.50
Beerschot VA
1.22

finishing

FC Nurnberg+0.00on par
Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nurnberg ↓

Beerschot VA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

FC Nurnberg or draw
49%
FC Nurnberg or Beerschot VA
80%
Draw or Beerschot VA
71%

Winning margin

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+
14%
Beerschot VA wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals
82%
FC Nurnberg 2+ goals
50%
FC Nurnberg 3+ goals
24%
Beerschot VA 1+ goals
90%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
67%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)
36%
Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nurnberg at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 3.11, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nurnberg attack 2.17 + Beerschot VA defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.69

Beerschot VA attack 3.11 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Nurnberg scores more
29%
level
20%
Beerschot VA scores more
51%

Beerschot VA at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Nurnberg host Beerschot VA

July 17, 2021: FC Nurnberg take on Beerschot VA in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Nurnberg host Beerschot VA at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.