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FC Nottingen vs SV Linx — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Nottingen
FC Nottingen
FT
3 – 0
SV Linx
SV Linx
9/5/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 4Kleiner-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FC Nottingen58%
×Draw19%
SV Linx23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nottingen
2.49
SV Linx
1.51

FC Nottingen creates 65% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC Nottingen
2.38
SV Linx
1.52

allows per match

FC Nottingen
1.50
SV Linx
2.60

finishing

FC Nottingen+0.00on par
SV Linx+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nottingen ↓

SV Linx →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

FC Nottingen or draw
77%
FC Nottingen or SV Linx
81%
Draw or SV Linx
42%

Winning margin

FC Nottingen wins by 2+
38%
SV Linx wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Nottingen 1+ goals
92%
FC Nottingen 2+ goals
71%
FC Nottingen 3+ goals
45%
SV Linx 1+ goals
78%
SV Linx 2+ goals
44%
SV Linx 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Nottingen (draw refunded)
72%
SV Linx (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nottingen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

SV Linx away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nottingen attack 2.38 + SV Linx defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.49

SV Linx attack 1.52 + FC Nottingen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Nottingen scores more
58%
level
19%
SV Linx scores more
23%

FC Nottingen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Nottingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: FC Nottingen 3–0 SV Linx

FC Nottingen beat SV Linx 3-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Kleiner-Arena in Remchingen.