FC Nottingen vs Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

FC Nottingen

CANC

13:30

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

11/7/2020

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 15Kleiner-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FC Nottingen56%

×Draw20%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NottingenExpected goals in this matchSportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.47

FC Nottingen

2.29

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

1.47

FC Nottingen creates 56% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 25 away

2.38

creates per match

1.44

1.50

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

FC Nottingen

2.38

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

1.44

allows per match

FC Nottingen

1.50

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Nottingen+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nottingen ↓

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

FC Nottingen or draw

76%

FC Nottingen or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

80%

Draw or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

44%

Winning margin

FC Nottingen wins by 2+

34%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Nottingen 1+ goals

90%

FC Nottingen 2+ goals

66%

FC Nottingen 3+ goals

40%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals

77%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals

43%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FC Nottingen (draw refunded)

70%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nottingen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nottingen attack 2.38 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.29

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.44 + FC Nottingen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Nottingen scores more

56%

level

20%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more

24%

FC Nottingen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Nottingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff