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FC Nottingen vs Sandhausen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Nottingen
FC Nottingen
CANC
13:30
Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
4/17/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 29Kleiner-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Nottingen56%
×Draw20%
Sandhausen II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nottingen
2.27
Sandhausen II
1.42

FC Nottingen creates 60% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Nottingen
2.38
Sandhausen II
1.33

allows per match

FC Nottingen
1.50
Sandhausen II
2.17

finishing

FC Nottingen+0.00on par
Sandhausen II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nottingen ↓

Sandhausen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

FC Nottingen or draw
76%
FC Nottingen or Sandhausen II
80%
Draw or Sandhausen II
44%

Winning margin

FC Nottingen wins by 2+
35%
Sandhausen II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Nottingen 1+ goals
90%
FC Nottingen 2+ goals
66%
FC Nottingen 3+ goals
39%
Sandhausen II 1+ goals
76%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
41%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Nottingen (draw refunded)
70%
Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nottingen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

Sandhausen II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nottingen attack 2.38 + Sandhausen II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.27

Sandhausen II attack 1.33 + FC Nottingen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Nottingen scores more
56%
level
20%
Sandhausen II scores more
24%

FC Nottingen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Nottingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Nottingen host Sandhausen II

April 17, 2021: FC Nottingen take on Sandhausen II in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Nottingen host Sandhausen II at Kleiner-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.