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FC Nottingen vs Offenburger FV — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Nottingen
FC Nottingen
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Offenburger FV
Offenburger FV
10/21/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 14Kleiner-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FC Nottingen68%
×Draw17%
Offenburger FV15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nottingen
2.71
Offenburger FV
1.22

FC Nottingen creates 122% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 34 away

creates per match

FC Nottingen
2.38
Offenburger FV
0.94

allows per match

FC Nottingen
1.50
Offenburger FV
3.03

finishing

FC Nottingen+0.00on par
Offenburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nottingen ↓

Offenburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

FC Nottingen or draw
85%
FC Nottingen or Offenburger FV
83%
Draw or Offenburger FV
32%

Winning margin

FC Nottingen wins by 2+
47%
Offenburger FV wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Nottingen 1+ goals
93%
FC Nottingen 2+ goals
75%
FC Nottingen 3+ goals
50%
Offenburger FV 1+ goals
70%
Offenburger FV 2+ goals
34%
Offenburger FV 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Nottingen (draw refunded)
82%
Offenburger FV (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nottingen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

Offenburger FV away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nottingen attack 2.38 + Offenburger FV defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.71

Offenburger FV attack 0.94 + FC Nottingen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

FC Nottingen scores more
68%
level
17%
Offenburger FV scores more
15%

FC Nottingen at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FC Nottingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Nottingen vs Offenburger FV

FC Nottingen beat Offenburger FV 5-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on October 21, 2022.

The match was played at Kleiner-Arena in Remchingen.