Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Nottingen vs Normannia Gmünd — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Nottingen
FC Nottingen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Normannia Gmünd
Normannia Gmünd
11/10/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 17Kleiner-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FC Nottingen52%
×Draw21%
Normannia Gmünd27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nottingen
2.05
Normannia Gmünd
1.42

FC Nottingen creates 44% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 51 away

creates per match

FC Nottingen
2.38
Normannia Gmünd
1.33

allows per match

FC Nottingen
1.50
Normannia Gmünd
1.73

finishing

FC Nottingen+0.00on par
Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nottingen ↓

Normannia Gmünd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

FC Nottingen or draw
73%
FC Nottingen or Normannia Gmünd
79%
Draw or Normannia Gmünd
48%

Winning margin

FC Nottingen wins by 2+
30%
Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Nottingen 1+ goals
87%
FC Nottingen 2+ goals
61%
FC Nottingen 3+ goals
33%
Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals
76%
Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals
41%
Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Nottingen (draw refunded)
66%
Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nottingen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

Normannia Gmünd away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nottingen attack 2.38 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.05

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.33 + FC Nottingen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Nottingen scores more
52%
level
21%
Normannia Gmünd scores more
27%

FC Nottingen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Nottingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: FC Nottingen 3–1 Normannia Gmünd

FC Nottingen beat Normannia Gmünd 3-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Kleiner-Arena in Remchingen.