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FC Nottingen vs Ilshofen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Nottingen
FC Nottingen
FT
3 – 0
Ilshofen
Ilshofen
9/30/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 9Kleiner-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FC Nottingen64%
×Draw18%
Ilshofen18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nottingen
2.61
Ilshofen
1.35

FC Nottingen creates 93% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC Nottingen
2.38
Ilshofen
1.20

allows per match

FC Nottingen
1.50
Ilshofen
2.84

finishing

FC Nottingen+0.00on par
Ilshofen+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nottingen ↓

Ilshofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

FC Nottingen or draw
82%
FC Nottingen or Ilshofen
82%
Draw or Ilshofen
36%

Winning margin

FC Nottingen wins by 2+
43%
Ilshofen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Nottingen 1+ goals
93%
FC Nottingen 2+ goals
73%
FC Nottingen 3+ goals
47%
Ilshofen 1+ goals
74%
Ilshofen 2+ goals
39%
Ilshofen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Nottingen (draw refunded)
78%
Ilshofen (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nottingen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

Ilshofen away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nottingen attack 2.38 + Ilshofen defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.61

Ilshofen attack 1.20 + FC Nottingen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FC Nottingen scores more
64%
level
18%
Ilshofen scores more
18%

FC Nottingen at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC Nottingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: FC Nottingen 3–0 Ilshofen

FC Nottingen beat Ilshofen 3-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Kleiner-Arena in Remchingen.