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FC Nöttingen vs Backnang — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Nöttingen
FC Nöttingen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Backnang
Backnang
10/19/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 13Kleiner-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

FC Nöttingen50%
×Draw21%
Backnang28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nöttingen
2.10
Backnang
1.54

FC Nöttingen creates 36% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 93 away

creates per match

FC Nöttingen
2.38
Backnang
1.57

allows per match

FC Nöttingen
1.50
Backnang
1.82

finishing

FC Nöttingen+0.00on par
Backnang+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nöttingen ↓

Backnang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

FC Nöttingen or draw
72%
FC Nöttingen or Backnang
79%
Draw or Backnang
50%

Winning margin

FC Nöttingen wins by 2+
30%
Backnang wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Nöttingen 1+ goals
88%
FC Nöttingen 2+ goals
62%
FC Nöttingen 3+ goals
35%
Backnang 1+ goals
79%
Backnang 2+ goals
45%
Backnang 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FC Nöttingen (draw refunded)
64%
Backnang (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nöttingen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

Backnang away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.82 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nöttingen attack 2.38 + Backnang defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.10

Backnang attack 1.57 + FC Nöttingen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Nöttingen scores more
50%
level
21%
Backnang scores more
28%

FC Nöttingen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Nöttingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: FC Nöttingen 1–1 Backnang

FC Nöttingen and Backnang drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Kleiner-Arena in Remchingen.