FC Nordsjaelland 3–2 Lyngby: Result & Stats

FC Nordsjaelland

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lyngby

2/18/2024

Superliga · Round 18Right to Dream Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

FC Nordsjaelland55%

×Draw23%

Lyngby22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NordsjaellandExpected goals in this matchLyngby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.06

FC Nordsjaelland

1.82

Lyngby

1.06

FC Nordsjaelland creates 72% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 81 away

1.81

creates per match

0.95

1.17

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

FC Nordsjaelland

1.81

Lyngby

0.95

allows per match

FC Nordsjaelland

1.17

Lyngby

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par

Lyngby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nordsjaelland ↓

Lyngby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Nordsjaelland or draw

78%

FC Nordsjaelland or Lyngby

77%

Draw or Lyngby

45%

Winning margin

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

31%

Lyngby wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

84%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

54%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

27%

Lyngby 1+ goals

65%

Lyngby 2+ goals

29%

Lyngby 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

71%

Lyngby (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nordsjaelland at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.17 · 132 matches

Lyngby away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nordsjaelland attack 1.81 + Lyngby defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.82

Lyngby attack 0.95 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

55%

level

23%

Lyngby scores more

22%

FC Nordsjaelland at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Nordsjaelland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff