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FC Nordsjaelland vs Fenerbahçe — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
11/30/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 5Right to Dream Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC Nordsjaelland70%
×Draw16%
Fenerbahçe14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nordsjaelland
2.94
Fenerbahçe
1.30

FC Nordsjaelland creates 126% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

FC Nordsjaelland
4.20
Fenerbahçe
2.00

allows per match

FC Nordsjaelland
0.60
Fenerbahçe
1.67

finishing

FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par
Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nordsjaelland ↓

Fenerbahçe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

FC Nordsjaelland or draw
86%
FC Nordsjaelland or Fenerbahçe
84%
Draw or Fenerbahçe
30%

Winning margin

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+
50%
Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals
95%
FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals
79%
FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals
55%
Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
73%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
37%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)
83%
Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nordsjaelland at home — creates 4.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nordsjaelland attack 4.20 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.94

Fenerbahçe attack 2.00 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

FC Nordsjaelland scores more
70%
level
16%
Fenerbahçe scores more
14%

FC Nordsjaelland at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "FC Nordsjaelland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Nordsjaelland vs Fenerbahçe

FC Nordsjaelland beat Fenerbahçe 6-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 30, 2023.

The match was played at Right to Dream Park in Farum.