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FC Noah vs West Armenia — Premier League 2019

FC Noah
FC Noah
FT
7 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
West Armenia
West Armenia
12/15/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC Noah66%
×Draw19%
West Armenia14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Noah
2.21
West Armenia
0.92

FC Noah creates 140% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 31 away

creates per match

FC Noah
2.04
West Armenia
0.90

allows per match

FC Noah
0.94
West Armenia
2.39

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par
West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

West Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw
86%
FC Noah or West Armenia
81%
Draw or West Armenia
34%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+
43%
West Armenia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals
89%
FC Noah 2+ goals
65%
FC Noah 3+ goals
38%
West Armenia 1+ goals
60%
West Armenia 2+ goals
23%
West Armenia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)
82%
West Armenia (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.94 · 109 matches

West Armenia away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.04 + West Armenia defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.21

West Armenia attack 0.90 + FC Noah defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

FC Noah scores more
66%
level
19%
West Armenia scores more
14%

FC Noah at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Noah vs West Armenia

FC Noah beat West Armenia 7-1 in Premier League on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht in Yerevan.