Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Noah vs Vikingur Reykjavik — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

FC Noah
FC Noah
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vikingur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik
11/28/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Noah63%
×Draw23%
Vikingur Reykjavik14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Noah
1.71
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.64

FC Noah creates 167% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

FC Noah
2.08
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.58

allows per match

FC Noah
0.69
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.33

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par
Vikingur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

Vikingur Reykjavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw
86%
FC Noah or Vikingur Reykjavik
77%
Draw or Vikingur Reykjavik
37%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+
36%
Vikingur Reykjavik wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals
82%
FC Noah 2+ goals
51%
FC Noah 3+ goals
24%
Vikingur Reykjavik 1+ goals
47%
Vikingur Reykjavik 2+ goals
14%
Vikingur Reykjavik 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)
82%
Vikingur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Vikingur Reykjavik away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.08 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Vikingur Reykjavik attack 0.58 + FC Noah defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FC Noah scores more
63%
level
23%
Vikingur Reykjavik scores more
14%

FC Noah at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Noah vs Vikingur Reykjavik

FC Noah and Vikingur Reykjavik drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 28, 2024.

The match was played at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht in Yerevan.