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FC Noah vs Noravank — Premier League 2019

FC Noah
FC Noah
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Noravank
Noravank
12/1/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Noah66%
×Draw20%
Noravank14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Noah
2.05
Noravank
0.82

FC Noah creates 150% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Noah
2.04
Noravank
0.71

allows per match

FC Noah
0.94
Noravank
2.06

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par
Noravank+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

Noravank →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw
86%
FC Noah or Noravank
80%
Draw or Noravank
34%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+
41%
Noravank wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals
87%
FC Noah 2+ goals
61%
FC Noah 3+ goals
33%
Noravank 1+ goals
56%
Noravank 2+ goals
20%
Noravank 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)
82%
Noravank (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.94 · 109 matches

Noravank away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.04 + Noravank defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.05

Noravank attack 0.71 + FC Noah defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

FC Noah scores more
66%
level
20%
Noravank scores more
14%

FC Noah at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Noah 2–1 Noravank

FC Noah beat Noravank 2-1 in Premier League on December 1, 2021.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.