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FC Noah vs Mlada Boleslav — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

FC Noah
FC Noah
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mlada Boleslav
Mlada Boleslav
10/3/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Noah50%
×Draw23%
Mlada Boleslav27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Noah
1.88
Mlada Boleslav
1.34

FC Noah creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Noah
2.08
Mlada Boleslav
2.00

allows per match

FC Noah
0.69
Mlada Boleslav
1.67

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par
Mlada Boleslav+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

Mlada Boleslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw
73%
FC Noah or Mlada Boleslav
77%
Draw or Mlada Boleslav
50%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+
28%
Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals
85%
FC Noah 2+ goals
56%
FC Noah 3+ goals
29%
Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals
74%
Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals
39%
Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)
65%
Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Mlada Boleslav away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.08 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.88

Mlada Boleslav attack 2.00 + FC Noah defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Noah scores more
50%
level
23%
Mlada Boleslav scores more
27%

FC Noah at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: FC Noah 2–0 Mlada Boleslav

FC Noah beat Mlada Boleslav 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 3, 2024.

The match was played at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht in Yerevan.