FC Noah 2–1 Legia Warszawa: Result & Stats

FC Noah

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Legia Warszawa

12/11/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 5Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FC Noah47%

×Draw23%

Legia Warszawa30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NoahExpected goals in this matchLegia Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.43

FC Noah

1.83

Legia Warszawa

1.43

FC Noah creates 28% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

2.08

creates per match

2.16

0.69

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

FC Noah

2.08

Legia Warszawa

2.16

allows per match

FC Noah

0.69

Legia Warszawa

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

Legia Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw

70%

FC Noah or Legia Warszawa

77%

Draw or Legia Warszawa

53%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+

26%

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals

84%

FC Noah 2+ goals

54%

FC Noah 3+ goals

28%

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals

76%

Legia Warszawa 2+ goals

42%

Legia Warszawa 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)

61%

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Legia Warszawa away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.08 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.83

Legia Warszawa attack 2.16 + FC Noah defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Noah scores more

47%

level

23%

Legia Warszawa scores more

30%

FC Noah at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff