FC Noah 1–0 AZ Alkmaar: Result & Stats

FC Noah

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AZ Alkmaar

2/19/2026

UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 32Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FC Noah54%

×Draw24%

AZ Alkmaar22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NoahExpected goals in this matchAZ Alkmaar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.03

FC Noah

1.75

AZ Alkmaar

1.03

FC Noah creates 70% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

2.08

creates per match

1.38

0.69

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

FC Noah

2.08

AZ Alkmaar

1.38

allows per match

FC Noah

0.69

AZ Alkmaar

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

AZ Alkmaar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw

78%

FC Noah or AZ Alkmaar

76%

Draw or AZ Alkmaar

46%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+

30%

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals

83%

FC Noah 2+ goals

52%

FC Noah 3+ goals

25%

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals

64%

AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals

28%

AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)

71%

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.08 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.75

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.38 + FC Noah defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Noah scores more

54%

level

24%

AZ Alkmaar scores more

22%

FC Noah at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff