FC Noah 1–3 Apoel Nicosia: Result & Stats

FC Noah

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Apoel Nicosia

12/12/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 5Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Noah52%

×Draw26%

Apoel Nicosia22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NoahExpected goals in this matchApoel Nicosia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.90

FC Noah

1.54

Apoel Nicosia

0.90

FC Noah creates 71% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

2.08

creates per match

1.10

0.69

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

FC Noah

2.08

Apoel Nicosia

1.10

allows per match

FC Noah

0.69

Apoel Nicosia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par

Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

Apoel Nicosia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw

78%

FC Noah or Apoel Nicosia

74%

Draw or Apoel Nicosia

48%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+

27%

Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals

79%

FC Noah 2+ goals

45%

FC Noah 3+ goals

20%

Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals

59%

Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals

23%

Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)

70%

Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Apoel Nicosia away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.08 + Apoel Nicosia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.10 + FC Noah defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Noah scores more

52%

level

26%

Apoel Nicosia scores more

22%

FC Noah at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff