Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Motown vs New Jersey Copa — USL League Two 2018

FC Motown
FC Motown
FT
4 – 0
New Jersey Copa
New Jersey Copa
6/6/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 20Ranger Stadium Drew University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Motown53%
×Draw24%
New Jersey Copa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Motown
1.75
New Jersey Copa
1.07

FC Motown creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 40 away

creates per match

FC Motown
1.29
New Jersey Copa
1.15

allows per match

FC Motown
1.00
New Jersey Copa
2.20

finishing

FC Motown+0.00on par
New Jersey Copa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Motown ↓

New Jersey Copa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Motown or draw
77%
FC Motown or New Jersey Copa
76%
Draw or New Jersey Copa
47%

Winning margin

FC Motown wins by 2+
29%
New Jersey Copa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Motown 1+ goals
83%
FC Motown 2+ goals
52%
FC Motown 3+ goals
25%
New Jersey Copa 1+ goals
66%
New Jersey Copa 2+ goals
29%
New Jersey Copa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Motown (draw refunded)
70%
New Jersey Copa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Motown at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

New Jersey Copa away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.20 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Motown attack 1.29 + New Jersey Copa defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.75

New Jersey Copa attack 1.15 + FC Motown defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Motown scores more
53%
level
24%
New Jersey Copa scores more
23%

FC Motown at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Motown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Motown vs New Jersey Copa

FC Motown beat New Jersey Copa 4-0 in USL League Two on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Ranger Stadium Drew University in Madison, New Jersey.