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FC Motown vs Manhattan — USL League Two 2018

FC Motown
FC Motown
FT
0 – 2
Manhattan
Manhattan
6/21/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 33MSU Soccer Park at Pittser Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Motown37%
×Draw25%
Manhattan38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Motown
1.39
Manhattan
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 43 away

creates per match

FC Motown
1.29
Manhattan
1.79

allows per match

FC Motown
1.00
Manhattan
1.49

finishing

FC Motown+0.00on par
Manhattan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Motown ↓

Manhattan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Motown or draw
62%
FC Motown or Manhattan
75%
Draw or Manhattan
63%

Winning margin

FC Motown wins by 2+
17%
Manhattan wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Motown 1+ goals
75%
FC Motown 2+ goals
40%
FC Motown 3+ goals
16%
Manhattan 1+ goals
75%
Manhattan 2+ goals
41%
Manhattan 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Motown (draw refunded)
50%
Manhattan (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Motown at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Manhattan away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Motown attack 1.29 + Manhattan defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Manhattan attack 1.79 + FC Motown defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Motown scores more
37%
level
25%
Manhattan scores more
38%

Manhattan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Manhattan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Motown vs Manhattan

Manhattan beat FC Motown 2-0 in USL League Two on June 21, 2021.

The match was played at MSU Soccer Park at Pittser Field in Montclair, New Jersey.