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FC Motown vs Long Island Rough Riders — USL League Two 2018

FC Motown
FC Motown
FT
1 – 0
Long Island Rough Riders
Long Island Rough Riders
6/26/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 36Ranger Stadium Drew University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Motown25%
×Draw24%
Long Island Rough Riders51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Motown
1.11
Long Island Rough Riders
1.69

Long Island Rough Riders creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 49 away

creates per match

FC Motown
1.29
Long Island Rough Riders
2.37

allows per match

FC Motown
1.00
Long Island Rough Riders
0.94

finishing

FC Motown+0.00on par
Long Island Rough Riders+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Motown ↓

Long Island Rough Riders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Motown or draw
49%
FC Motown or Long Island Rough Riders
76%
Draw or Long Island Rough Riders
75%

Winning margin

FC Motown wins by 2+
10%
Long Island Rough Riders wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

FC Motown 1+ goals
67%
FC Motown 2+ goals
30%
FC Motown 3+ goals
10%
Long Island Rough Riders 1+ goals
82%
Long Island Rough Riders 2+ goals
50%
Long Island Rough Riders 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

FC Motown (draw refunded)
33%
Long Island Rough Riders (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Motown at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Long Island Rough Riders away — creates 2.37, concedes 0.94 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Motown attack 1.29 + Long Island Rough Riders defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Long Island Rough Riders attack 2.37 + FC Motown defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Motown scores more
25%
level
24%
Long Island Rough Riders scores more
51%

Long Island Rough Riders at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Long Island Rough Riders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: FC Motown 1–0 Long Island Rough Riders

FC Motown beat Long Island Rough Riders 1-0 in USL League Two on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Ranger Stadium Drew University in Madison, New Jersey.