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FC Mk de Kinshasa vs Rangers — Ligue 1 2019

FC Mk de Kinshasa
FC Mk de Kinshasa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Rangers
Rangers
10/26/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Mk de Kinshasa37%
×Draw31%
Rangers33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Mk de Kinshasa
1.05
Rangers
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 83 away

creates per match

FC Mk de Kinshasa
0.92
Rangers
0.86

allows per match

FC Mk de Kinshasa
1.08
Rangers
1.19

finishing

FC Mk de Kinshasa+0.00on par
Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Mk de Kinshasa ↓

Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

FC Mk de Kinshasa or draw
67%
FC Mk de Kinshasa or Rangers
69%
Draw or Rangers
63%

Winning margin

FC Mk de Kinshasa wins by 2+
14%
Rangers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Mk de Kinshasa 1+ goals
65%
FC Mk de Kinshasa 2+ goals
28%
FC Mk de Kinshasa 3+ goals
9%
Rangers 1+ goals
62%
Rangers 2+ goals
25%
Rangers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Mk de Kinshasa (draw refunded)
53%
Rangers (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Mk de Kinshasa at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Rangers away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.19 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Mk de Kinshasa attack 0.92 + Rangers defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Rangers attack 0.86 + FC Mk de Kinshasa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Mk de Kinshasa scores more
37%
level
31%
Rangers scores more
33%

FC Mk de Kinshasa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Mk de Kinshasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Mk de Kinshasa vs Rangers

Rangers beat FC Mk de Kinshasa 3-1 in Ligue 1 on October 26, 2025.