FC Mk de Kinshasa 1–1 New Jack: Result & Stats

FC Mk de Kinshasa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

New Jack

2/4/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Mk de Kinshasa41%

×Draw31%

New Jack27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Mk de KinshasaExpected goals in this matchNew Jack

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.83

FC Mk de Kinshasa

1.09

New Jack

0.83

FC Mk de Kinshasa creates 31% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 22 away

0.92

creates per match

0.59

1.08

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

FC Mk de Kinshasa

0.92

New Jack

0.59

allows per match

FC Mk de Kinshasa

1.08

New Jack

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Mk de Kinshasa+0.00on par

New Jack+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Mk de Kinshasa ↓

New Jack →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

FC Mk de Kinshasa or draw

73%

FC Mk de Kinshasa or New Jack

69%

Draw or New Jack

59%

Winning margin

FC Mk de Kinshasa wins by 2+

17%

New Jack wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Mk de Kinshasa 1+ goals

66%

FC Mk de Kinshasa 2+ goals

30%

FC Mk de Kinshasa 3+ goals

10%

New Jack 1+ goals

56%

New Jack 2+ goals

20%

New Jack 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FC Mk de Kinshasa (draw refunded)

60%

New Jack (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Mk de Kinshasa at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

New Jack away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Mk de Kinshasa attack 0.92 + New Jack defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

New Jack attack 0.59 + FC Mk de Kinshasa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Mk de Kinshasa scores more

41%

level

31%

New Jack scores more

27%

FC Mk de Kinshasa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Mk de Kinshasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff