FC Minsk 0–1 Ruh Brest: Result & Stats

FC Minsk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ruh Brest

8/2/2020

Premier League · Round 20Stadyen Traktar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FC Minsk31%

×Draw25%

Ruh Brest44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MinskExpected goals in this matchRuh Brest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.59

FC Minsk

1.30

Ruh Brest

1.59

Ruh Brest creates 22% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 29 away

1.43

creates per match

1.76

1.43

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

FC Minsk

1.43

Ruh Brest

1.76

allows per match

FC Minsk

1.43

Ruh Brest

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Minsk+0.00on par

Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Minsk ↓

Ruh Brest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Minsk or draw

56%

FC Minsk or Ruh Brest

75%

Draw or Ruh Brest

69%

Winning margin

FC Minsk wins by 2+

13%

Ruh Brest wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

FC Minsk 1+ goals

73%

FC Minsk 2+ goals

37%

FC Minsk 3+ goals

14%

Ruh Brest 1+ goals

80%

Ruh Brest 2+ goals

47%

Ruh Brest 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FC Minsk (draw refunded)

41%

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Minsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Minsk attack 1.43 + Ruh Brest defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ruh Brest attack 1.76 + FC Minsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Minsk scores more

31%

level

25%

Ruh Brest scores more

44%

Ruh Brest at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff