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FC Midtjylland vs Sturm Graz — UEFA Europa League 2018

FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
11/3/2022UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 6MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FC Midtjylland67%
×Draw19%
Sturm Graz14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Midtjylland
2.19
Sturm Graz
0.90

FC Midtjylland creates 143% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

creates per match

FC Midtjylland
2.00
Sturm Graz
0.62

allows per match

FC Midtjylland
1.18
Sturm Graz
2.38

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.00on par
Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

Sturm Graz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw
86%
FC Midtjylland or Sturm Graz
81%
Draw or Sturm Graz
33%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+
43%
Sturm Graz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals
89%
FC Midtjylland 2+ goals
64%
FC Midtjylland 3+ goals
37%
Sturm Graz 1+ goals
59%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
23%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)
82%
Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 2.00 + Sturm Graz defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.19

Sturm Graz attack 0.62 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more
67%
level
19%
Sturm Graz scores more
14%

FC Midtjylland at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: FC Midtjylland 2–0 Sturm Graz

FC Midtjylland beat Sturm Graz 2-0 in UEFA Europa League on November 3, 2022.

The match was played at MCH Arena in Herning.